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The coming war with China must bear the characteristics we imagined the Third World War to exhibit in terms of economic havoc and uncontrollable human fear and stress. In a media-mad age where the 24-hour news cycle oversaturates the senses, the vast range of opinion blaring out from television and radio speakers, to say nothing of the Wild West Show of internet political scat, guarantees to leave palms sweating and teeth ground to the gum. This sad byproduct of our failure as citizens, for failing to focus on our government and its true nature, turned us into skittish spectators. As a result, we only exert influence at the periphery and, even then, only by placing ourselves in harm’s way in some manner. Joining up with, or protesting against; either way, our lot is always as fodder. For the coming war, we shall all face our ultimate test.
The winning strategy, from the perspective of the West, involves siege, combined with economic attrition. This type of age-old methodology requires both patience and constancy. No combination of allies can hope to beat the People’s Army on their ground, but by employing the strengths of sea and airpower against an economy that currently thrives through international trade, it is possible to force even a nation as great as China to eventually concede. The key is to enforce a total embargo; no air or sea traffic in or out … a total blockade. That some trade might continue along land routes and through the occasionally successful blockade runner will do more psychological damage from its infrequency and overall ineffectiveness than good from its fruits.
While the U.S. Navy and Air Force personnel engage operationally and suffer the bulk of the casualties, U.S. troop deployments along the border facing North Korea constitute the greatest risk facing our country’s forces in terms of human life. However, the Army’s best use from a military standpoint is as a feint, its massive presence a valuable distraction and tactical consideration for China’s defense planners. With full mobilization in India, Taiwan and Japan adding to the list of potential vulnerabilities, the set piece arrangement, while dangerous in terms of potential, provides the recipe for an old-fashioned Mexican standoff. In other words, all quiet on the Western Front; on the ground, at least.
The war with China can only be won or lost at sea and in the air. The United States is currently the master of both elements. The idea of enforcing a total economic embargo on China appears a ludicrous strategy at first glance, more fitting as an action for historical reenactment. After all, we still live in a nuclear age. While it is doubtful that either the U.S. or China initiates a nuclear attack, the risk that some threatened minor ally takes such a step is certainly possible. This demonstrates the extreme importance of clearly expressed military goals at every level of command; capturing territory is not an objective of the war. Patrol parties cannot breach enemy borders. Ground forces must dig themselves in and look out from a defensive posture, especially along the 38th Parallel in Korea and the Kashmir region. With both North Korea and Pakistan capable of committing a rash move, we cannot, under any circumstances, offer the excuse to do so.
China does not have a sufficient capability to respond to an embargo. It can fire some land-based cruise missiles at our aircraft carriers; it can threaten Taiwan and Japan with invasion. Such actions offer China little relief from the effects of a blockade. China cannot build itself toward victory – most of its iron ore is imported from Australia. Most of its current sophisticated weaponry is dependent on Western knowledge, both volunteered and swiped during times of peace. Its economy has developed, in many ways, like those in the West, only more quickly and with fewer established underpinnings to hold the infrastructure together during periods of economic disaster. They must sue for peace eventually and, when they do, we must be ready to offer terms.
Negotiating with the Chinese is never a pleasant experience. Nevertheless, we must hold firm on the following points:
- Taiwan is allowed entry into the United Nations and is recognized by China as an independent nation. In exchange, Taiwan formally recognizes the People’s Republic as the one and only China.
- China permits the United Nations to proceed with the unification of Korea by rescinding support for Kim Jong-il and the Workers’ Party of Korea and removing them from power. The method for removal shall be left to Chinese discretion.
- China pulls back from all disputed territories and allows UN oversight in binding arbitrations regarding permanent national borders.
- China removes unfair trade restrictions aimed at foreign trade and imports and complies with International Trade Commission rulings.
- China coordinates national monetary policy in conjunction with the International Monetary Fund and conforms to its policies.
- China surrenders all U.S. Treasury instruments in its possession to us for ten cents on the dollar, up to the point where the trade relationship is in balance. In exchange, the U.S. recommends suspension of all existing commercial trade restrictions against Chinese-made goods.
Even in the unlikely event that China conceded every point listed, the world does not suddenly become Eden. Points of conflict remain in the Middle East, as well as in regions throughout the world. Still, any portion of the list accepted represents a start, and a suddenly cooperative China would be of great benefit when approaching isolated pockets of international unrest. This all may be pie-in-the-sky. The level of risk in engaging China in this manner is enormous. Yet, the outcome has the potential to spur the world toward a more stable and more profitable future. Let us hope, and work toward, the best possible outcome.
