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The 9/11 hijackings, The U.S.S. Cole attack, the Lebanon barracks bombing; these represent instances from recent times when standard preparedness offered little in the way of protection against inspired havoc. It is impossible to know how many other attempts failed to achieve their objectives throughout this period, the planned mayhem prevented by vigilance, luck or poor execution. For the parties who engage in these acts, an occasional success is sufficient in strategic value to offset chronic losses. Guerilla warfare is not conducted in order to gain a tactical advantage. Its goal is more long-term in nature, to invoke a sense of instability on the front page of every day from now.
Audaciousness is the weaker opponent’s greatest weapon, if only in its ability to disrupt any sense of balance or control enjoyed by a superior force. The box-cutter in the shirt pocket, the time bomb in the baby carriage, the plastic explosive in the running shoe … these are a few of the thousand ways a shabby, but motivated, enemy may inflict a wound on our society.
During the Second World War, resistance groups in those countries occupied by the Third Reich conducted similar maneuvers. The physical damage itself was questionable in terms of measurable effectiveness. It is calculated that the total amount of explosives employed by the French Resistance against 150 military and industrial targets in Vichy France equaled the payload of a single light bomber. The true value of the attacks lay in their immediate aftermath – the disruption of normal activity, the increased suspicion attended innocent civilians by French police and German soldiers, and the crushing doubt attached to the sole of each forward step taken, whether by citizen or occupier. The parallels to current situations in Iraq, Afghanistan and every American airport are fairly obvious and it is only a matter of time before the next attempt is launched, a matter of fate if it succeeds or fails. No intelligence apparatus is foolproof. No defensive perimeter lacks some weakness.
Experience is both great teacher and elemental flaw in anticipating the actions of others. We plot the possibilities to fall within a specific range of responses based on various criteria: what we know (if anything) of their prior behavior, what we have observed in others in past similar situations, and what we ourselves might consider if in their place. We rarely allow for, or even consider the possibility of, any particularly audacious move. History is written on the carcasses of the victims of such irrational boldness, yet we remain vulnerable to acts borne from desperate devotion by people armed chiefly with an unlimited capacity for the unexpected.
What effective strategy is applicable to address the X factor of human ingenuity? What method exists to betray the shielded malice of an enemy in our midst? The answer to both questions is: None, whatsoever. Suicide bombers will continue to be recruited from the ranks of the disaffected. Normal everyday people will continue to find themselves at that moment of personal singularity, of being at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Fate is always the final arbiter, but that does not preclude us from making some effort to reduce the frequency of such tragedies or from making the infrequent ones other than our own.
It is more important than ever that we all pay attention to the threats against us. Is it so troublesome to remove your shoes when checking into an airport, if by doing so we force the other side to concoct yet another tactic? Does some code of honor deter terrorists from planting bombs on children or grandparents? Some find it easy to target the TSA for clumsy overzealousness, but consider that, as with any defensive force, the most expendable and least qualified among them is pushed to the front. Nevertheless, it is the presence itself that counts. If the price to combat audaciousness and preserve our sense of safety is an elevated level of exposure to inconvenience and bureaucratic incompetence, considering the cost of the alternative, it represents the greatest of values.
